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| Most Valuable "Playa" |
Since the 2011 season has come and gone with the
disappointment of the Phillies weighing heavily on the City of Brotherly Love,
there is only one thing left for fans to do: Focus on the 2012 season. This, of
course, is not new to Philadelphia fans because the day after the glorious
parade down Broad Street in 2008, the Phillies’ faithful were already talking
about improvements to be made so that there could be back-to-back championships
in 2009. With that in mind, the most important decision for the Phillies this
upcoming offseason (besides whether or not they have a closer next year) is
what to do with 32, soon to be 33, year old shortstop, James Calvin Rollins. In
order to make an informed decision, let’s learn from the past and see what another
recent shortstop over 30 has done.
The most recent example of this scenario was for the
illustrious Derek Jeter. Now Derek is definitely older than Jimmy when
requesting a big pay day, but then again it is “The Captain” we are talking
about here so he can make those demands. In 2006, at 32 years old, Jeter felt
like a boy growing up in the Bronx again with his split looking a little bit
like this: .343/.417/.483 14 HR, 97 RBI, 34 SB. We are willing to bet that if
Rollins put numbers even close to this over the next 3 seasons, it would be
well worth the money to give him the 5 yr deal right now. Some of the naysayers
out there may say, “big deal he must have fell off after that”, and to that we
reply, look at his splits the next 3 seasons: .322/.388/.452, .300/.363/.408,
.334/.406/.465, respectively. We aren’t saying Jimmy is going to put up this
type of numbers over the next 4 or 5 seasons, but it shows that a shortstop
over the age of 32 can continue to thrive and succeed even as his age progresses.
Then there is also fielding to consider, because this is one
of the most important parts of the SS position. Jeter has always had more
errors than Rollins, but since he turned 32 in 2006, he has 53 errors in a five
year period, which is an average of 10.6/yr. If you look at that over his life
as a Yankee, that’s actually a bit lower than his career average of 13.6/yr. We
know a lot of that can be argued by his possible decrease in range, but as long
as errors continue to be counted as a stat, we will continue to use them in the
argument. Plus, watch game film of Jeter and Rollins, you can see using the
“eye test” that these guys are still quality defensive shortstops.
This past year, Jimmy showed that he can continue to be as
productive as any point in his career. His splits this year were .268/.338/.399
which is extremely close to his splits in his entire career .272/.329/.432. His
BA and SLG are a little bit down, but possibly the most important stat for a
leadoff hitter, on-base percentage, was actually higher than his career
average. When we compare these numbers to every other SS in MLB, Rollins
finished 13th in the league in AVG, 9th in OBP, 10th
in SLG and, oh yeah, 5th among all SS for homeruns. Jimmy has always
been a catalyst and the Phillies have been able to score runs because of his
table setting at the top of the lineup. If his OBP continues to stay at that
rate, the offense has a fighting chance to score some runs going forward. The
other factor here is Jimmy’s defense, which has always been stellar. In 2011,
with 138 games, Rollins only had 7 errors…wow. Throughout his entire life as a
Phillie, he has averaged 8.62 errors per season. Again, this season appears to
be an improvement for his career average. If you look throughout the league,
Rollins sits 4th in the league in fielding percentage (.988) and tied
for third in Major League Baseball with only those 7 errors. The argument for
his range declining can be made, but again use the “eye test” and you can see
that he is still a gold glove caliber type of player.
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| After those valuable insights, even Ben is running to tell Amaro how to handle it. |
Our final argument for Jimmy Rollins is a sentimental one.
Jimmy has been with the club since he was drafted, and he has gone through the
good and bad of being a Philadelphia sports star. He dealt with the team when
we were perennial losers (80-81 in his second full year with the club in 2002)
and the ultimate joy in 2008 with a World Series trophy. He deserves to finish
out his career here in Philadelphia whether it ends on a high or on a low. The
low would be if he got injured and couldn’t complete his contract, wasting the
team’s money on a yearly basis, but players are routinely playing much later
now-a-days, even Raul Ibanez can contribute at 39. Age is not what it used to
be and injury is something that can happen just as easily to a 22 year old as
it can to a 33 year old. The high would be a record that Jimmy Rollins is close
to reaching. The all-time Phillies career hits leader, Michael Jack Schmidt, is
at 2,234 and Jimmy is a measly 368 hits behind him at 1,866. Even if we have to
give Jimmy the 5 year deal (4 with an option), it would help the Philadelphia
area retain a leader and all-time great for the club. With three decent years
in those five years, James Calvin Rollins can easily reserve his rightful place
in Phillies history as one of the best ever to wear the red pinstripes. Give
him the chance to be one of the greatest players in Phillies’ history.
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